Category: Economics

The 10 Reasons Why Donald Trump Will Win The Presidential Election.

Contrary to all the naysayers, here are the top ten reasons why I believe Donald Trump is going to win the election (from least important to most important):

10) VOTING IS ANONYMOUS; POLLS TYPICALLY ARE NOT.  Most polling is done via telephone or in person.  Well, a new app just came out that has anonymous polling.  Trump wins in a landslide.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2016/08/13/app-maker—trump-win-election/88640044/
http://redalertpolitics.com/2016/08/15/tech-entrepreneur-app-shows-trump-going-win-polls-wrong/

This one poll cannot be deemed a total game changer, but it did encourage me to ask “why”?  Why were these poll results so dramatically different?  It suddenly hit me like a thunder bolt: the poll was anonymous, unlike virtually every poll conducted by the media and regular pollsters.  And guess what else is anonymous?  VOTING.

In other words, any poll that is not anonymous should probably be suspect.  Why?  People who have their name attached to something do not speak completely freely.  We all know this from personal experience.

What does this mean?  It seems to point to the very real possibility that most people support Trump… but are afraid to say it publicly.  I think there is a silent majority, and unlike any we have seen before, and I truly believe that they are going to determine this election.

9) TRUMP IS TURNING AROUND.  PEOPLE ARE TRYING TO FIND A REASON TO VOTE FOR HIM BECAUSE THEY DISLIKE HILLARY SOOOO MUCH.
Trump is not the most amazing candidate in the history of politics by a long shot, but… neither is Hillary.  Polls continually show that they don’t trust Hillary, and Trump is undeniably in the midst of a turn-around.  For a guy who has never run for public office, he is doing incredibly well.  His message is reaching more people and his gawkiness is starting to fade: he is absolutely becoming presidential.  While the turnaround won’t be easy, it is starting, and I think it’s going to start picking up speed in the next few weeks.
8) WIKILEAKS IS GOING TO RELEASE MORE DAMAGING DIRT ON HILLARY CLINTON
There is no question that there are more damaging hacked documents to be dumped soon, and probably right before the election.  The NSA has already been hacked and the DNC has been hacked (you have been reading the news, right?) and soon, there’s more coming down the pike.  Read these articles:
7) THE MEDIA HAVE NEVER BEEN MORE BIASED THAN IT IS TODAY.
The mass media, though they would like to believe they represent the common man’s belief, do not in any way represent the common man’s belief.
Why this unprecedented bias?  Simple: the mass media (which is the media of the left) just doesn’t like Trump and is so scared because they know he may win.
And yet… even the leftie media groups are now changing their tune and starting to cover negative stories about Hillary Clinton (see below).  Why?  Because they are starting to realize that their covering up of Hillary’s parade of scandals is starting to look bad and threatening to forever tarnish the reputation they spent so long building.
6) I STILL BELIEVE MOST AMERICANS ARE NOT COMPLETELY STUPID OR TOTALLY AMORAL AND DEEP DOWN, THEY KNOW TRUMP IS NOT A RACIST.
A friend of mine noted this fact the other day: many people call Trump racist and then say they are moving to Canada if Trump wins.  That’s curious.  Why not Mexico?  Is Mexico not good enough for them?  Too much crime?  Too much drugs?  Too many Mexicans?  Seems a little racist to immediately say Canada and not consider Mexico, does it not?
Here’s a better fact: just two weeks ago, a historically black church down south decided to dump Hillary and endorse Trump.  Go ahead and watch the CNN clip, and then watch the video from the endorsement from The Historic Antioch Road to Glory International Ministries:
I admit Trump says things that are unvarnished truth, but that doesn’t make him a racist.  He never said all mexicans are racists and murderers and it’s upsetting to me that people are so stupid or lazy as to continually misquote him.  He said that Mexico (and other Latin American countries) is sending their rapists and murderers over the border.  And guess what: they are.  How so?  By not keeping them in jail, by not policing their border, and by not making it lucrative to stay in Mexico.
I worked as a public defender in New York for two years.  At least 1/4 of my clients were illegals, and 95% were from Latin America.  Many of them have snuck over the border more than THREE TIMES.  How, I asked them.  “I just walk over the border”.  Whaaaatttt???!!!!!  Yeah, we need the wall.  No question.
Now, these clients of mine were accused of what?   Identity theft?  Not usually.  Check fraud?  Nope.  Violent crimes: murder, attempted murder, rape, armed robbery, and the list goes on.  Do you really want these people in your country?  I don’t.  Call me a racist if you want, but all I want to do is keep people who have no legal right to be in this country… out.  Same for Trump.
A large portion of crime in our country is committed by illegal hispanics.  Is that racist?  No, it’s fact.  Accept it and let’s enact the solution: keep illegals out.  It’s the law.  And voila: crime in America drops.
As for Muslims (men, women, children)?  I was in Iraq as a soldier.  Guess who was trying to kill me?  Muslim men.  Muslim women.  And even Muslim children.  The majority of terrorist acts today are committed by Muslims.  Again, is that racist?  No, it’s fact.  Accept it and let’s enact the solution: vet any Muslim coming into this country.  Is that profiling?  YES!  Yes it is!  And I embrace it fully, because it works.  And when Christians start committing inordinate amounts of terrorist acts too, profile me as much as you wish.
My honest hope for anyone who disagrees is that an illegal or a Muslim terrorist does NOT kill one of your loved ones.  As soon as it happens, you will change your tune.  Sadly, by then it will be too late.
5) CLINTON WILL BE DESTROYED AT THE DEBATES.
The media continues to portray Clinton as an amazing debate performer, and Trump as a rambling buffoon, but I think the proof will be in the pudding.  Trump does press conference after press conference, while Hillary hasn’t done one in–what is it now?  256 days?  Oh, no, here’s a report from the Washington Post: 263 days!
Hillary Clinton is good at scripted and controlled environments; Trump thrives off of extemporaneous and impromptu remarks.  I truly believe he will destroy her.  Hard to believe, since the newspaper doesn’t report any bad stories about Clinton, but her scandals outshine any of Trump’s by a landslide.
For example, did you know when Bill left office, the Clintons took tens of thousands of dollars of White House furniture as their own, and then were forced to return it all:
4) THERE ARE GOING TO BE DEEPER CONSEQUENCES OF THE PAY-TO-PLAY AT THE CLINTON FOUNDATION AND STATE DEPARTMENT.
Many continue to defend her actions, even after seeing her dishonesty with the emails and “recklessness” (Comey’s words) with classified data.  But now there’s more: Latest revelations from Washington Post & Fox make it clear that she is not going to put the country’s interests before her own:
Big problems for Hillary, from Fox News:
3) OBAMACARE IS FAILING ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
Millions of those who voted for Obama in order to enact Obamacare have now lost their coverage, lost their doctor, or lost their “low cost” premiums.  They, like millions of others across the country, are furious with where this country is headed and want a repeal.
From Slate:
From NPR/Harvard, via Powerline Blog:
2) THE PEOPLE REALLY DO WANT CHANGE.  
But sorry, they don’t want socialistic change.  They want change to actually bring America back on track as the world leader its people want it to be.  On top of that, it seems clear that America is sick of politicians.  I know that I am.
Yes, America wants change, but not the change that Hillary Clinton is fighting for.  I find it hard to believe that most Americans want our country to become even more socialist, particularly since the recent failures of Obamacare show that it doesn’t work.
President Obama was an interesting experiment that didn’t work.  It’s now time for a new experiment.  Its name is Trump.
1) THE MEDIA HAVE BEEN WRONG FROM DAY ONE.
This last reason is truly the strongest.  Why?  The entire media all think he’s gonna lose. Don’t you therefore see?  This means he’s gonna win.
Why?  Becauuuuuuuuuuuuuuse… they have been wrong about him from day one.
Over a year ago, they were laughing at him, predicting he would meet his demise before the first debates.  Alas, he made it to the debates.
During the debates, they were laughing at him, predicting his demise long before the final debates.  Alas, he was the last man standing.
Before the convention, they predicted he would be supplanted by the ‘Never Trump’ campaign.  Alas, he became the nominee.
‘Gaffe’ after ‘gaffe’, they predicted he would never be able to recover.  Alas, he is still in the game, and the Clinton campaign is–despite their appearances–petrified of what the future holds.
So what do we have?  Over 14 months of TOTAL AND COMPLETE INACCURACY, and yet… they continue to make predictions.  Why are they still making predictions?  More concerning, why are the American people still believing them?  Don’t you all realize that the media has lost all its credibility?
The mainstream media continues to try to paint the picture of Trump as a born loser, but as I just pointed out: anything they predict… is wrong.
Critics of my theory state, “Yeah, but look at the polls!”  First, I don’t trust them (see # 10 above) and second, polls have only been accurate in NORMAL presidential elections.  What we have here is an election that no one from the mainstream media has been right about from the day Trump entered the arena.
Conclusion
Trump will win.
No, I can’t predict the future, but the telltale signs seem to make it clear that there is a very high likelihood that nothing in this election is truly as it seems.
People keep saying that Trump has lost his window to turn the tides in this election with only about 85 days left until the election.  Here’s some history: The Boston Tea party turned the tides against the British in just one day.  Normandy turned the tides in favor of the allies in but one day.  And Trump can win this election in just one day too.
As those in combat know, “Never underestimate your enemy.”  Too many are underestimating Trump, thinking he’s an idiot, when truly, you don’t turn a million dollars into billions by being an idiot, and anyone who disputes this is… an idiot who doesn’t understand money, doesn’t understand real estate, and doesn’t understand how difficult it is to do what Trump has done.
Sure, I may be proven wrong.  If so, I will sadly have to accept the fact that America is no longer what it once was; that its people are greatly uneducated and don’t know history; that its people have become lazy and expecting of socialistic handouts from the government; that honesty means nothing anymore; and that government corruption is acceptable.
I may, however, be proven right.  And particularly so if Trump wins in a landslide.  And then my faith in the human race will be restored!  Never more than now: God bless America.  Please God!  Please!
Bottom line, the future of our nation is at stake.  While I love Europe with all my heart, I don’t want the USA to be Europe.  While I love China with all my heart, I don’t want the USA to be China.  I want my country to return to its position as the beacon of hope and dreams for the world.  I don’t want the USA to become like every other country.  We are an exceptional nation.  We need to start acting like one.
Advertisement

The UK declares its independence: what’s next?

by Dr. Monroe Mann, PhD, Esq, MBA, ME, LLM, EMT

I’m pleased to report that my prediction came true: the EU just lost a member and the UK is now a free and independent nation once again!  If you haven’t read what I wrote two days ago, I suggest you read that one first, about why Brexit came to be, to provide some context.  Read it here.

While most of the world is clamoring about how horrible Brexit is, and predicting that the British pound will never recover, blah blah, I continue to remind everyone that:

a) this was inevitable
b) this is good for the world
c) this is ultimately good for the UK, and
d) this is a harbinger of things to come, so if you didn’t like THIS, you may not like what comes next.

What comes next?  The UK regains its importance as world leader, side by side with the USA; a re-emergence of the pound as a world currency of great importance (being a part of the EU diminished its caché in the world); and yes, further erosion of the EU.

Granted, the UK has an easier time getting out of the EU simply because they don’t have to ‘recreate their currency’, but aside from that, there is no doubt that even countries within the eurozone are going to start having their own discussions about what is best for their unique PEOPLE, their unique LANGUAGES, their unique CULTURES, and their unique HISTORIES.  The EU just lost one of its two most powerful economies (the other, of course, being Germany, which is still a part of the EU and EMU… but for how long?).

Now, of course, there is a big difference between the UK and continental Europe.  I have, in fact, always believed that the UK has far more in common with the USA than it does with continental Europe.  The UK is an island.  The USA, while not an island, is only bordered on the northern and southern sides, and far away from all other continents to its east and west.  The UK and the USA share the same language and… in many ways, the same history too: former colonial relationship; major allies in World War II; and now, they have both declared independence from a great power.

Therefore, the EU will continue.  However, I believe its power has reached its zenith, unless the countries are willing to relinquish some political, military, and economic power in favor of a more traditional federal type of system.  As I mentioned in my earlier post however, this is highly unlikely to happen, due to the reasons of differing cultures, languages, and histories.  France has French pride in a way that New York does not have New York pride.  We New Yorkers are proud to be New Yorkers, but we are FAR more proud to be Americans, and again, therein lies the big difference.

Moving forward, the next question is: which country is going to start grumbling about the EU next?  Might it be one of the Scandinavian countries, so far north?  Might it be Germany itself, recognizing that the rest of the EU is dragging down their economy?  Or might it be one of the weaker economics of Spain, Portugal, Italy, or Greece, believing that their economic plight might actually improve if they could make their own decisions?

When the EU began, there was some merit to it, and it was a small bloc of countries.  Now, it seems every country and its cousin wants to join.  The very fact that the EU is even considering bringing Turkey into the EU is shocking.  It has nothing to do with the fact that Turkey is primarily a muslim nation.  It has to do with the fact that Turkey is not a part of Europe!  Sure, Istanbul is an amazingly beautiful city, and one that unlike any other in the world uniquely melds both the east and the west (and you NEED to go see it), but… Istanbul is but a sliver of the country.  It’s a gorgeous city on the FAR WESTERN EDGE of the country.  As soon as you leave Istanbul towards the east, you are most certainly in the middle east.  Guess what countries border Turkey to the east?  Maybe you’ve heard of them: Syria.  Iraq.  Um… Iran.  Take a look at a map.  If Turkey is admitted, what of those middle eastern countries is next?

Now, if Istanbul wanted to secede from Turkey (which is likely to never happen), that might be another story entirely, because there are indeed western influences in Istanbul that in many ways outweigh the eastern ones.  But to even consider bringing Turkey into the EU shows just how crazy things have gotten.

The original 1958 countries were: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands.  Five countries.  How many members are there today?  28.  Oh, scratch that: 27 once we remove the UK.   TWENTY SEVEN.

And guess who is on deck to become a member: Albania, Montenegro, Serbia, Former Macedonia, and yes, Turkey.  But that’s not all.  There’s also Bosnia and Herzegovina, plus Kosovo.  It’s a mad house of countries who want the benefit of a unified currency, but refuse to unify the politics, the military, the languages, or the cultures.  Yet they want to grow bigger, and bigger, and bigger (but in a super strange and off-kilter sort of way that makes no sense whatsoever).

Why has the EU grown so big in the last 50+ years?  Precisely because the countries don’t really have to give up much of anything.  It’s a chimera.  They think they can get something for nothing.  They want to have their cake and eat it too (which is an expression I have never understood because it is illogical.  If I have a cake, what’s wrong with me eating it, huh?  I guess the point is that after you eat it, you will no longer have it, but it’s still stupid.  And yet, I used it nonetheless, so I’m a hypocrite!)  My point is that if becoming a part of the EU required the abandoning of a national language, and abandoning certain traditions, and unifying behind the culture of EUROPE rather than the culture of your country… no one would join.  Think about that for a moment: none of these countries wants to become “European”; they want to join the “European Union”.  Therein lies a huge difference.

A better (but never going to happen) solution would be to create smaller unifications, i.e. Germany and Austria join together into one TRUE country.  France and Spain.  Italy and Switzerland.  Let’s call them Germanria; Frain; and Italiland.  Ha ha.  Sounds pretty horrible, and guess what: that’s exactly why what is happening in Europe is just ultimately unworkable on a greater scale than it already is.  There can and never will be a unification of Europe.  That is, until and unless they rally behind a single president, which again, will not happen except by some miracle.

So what does this mean?  It means the EU needs to stop accepting new members.  It needs to establish VERY strict economic guidelines and if you don’t meet them, you get kicked out.  There can be no bailouts.  It needs to start focusing on creating a European identity that is greater than the national identities.  All of this is extremely difficult… if not impossible.

There is only one certainty regarding the future of the EU: if it continues to grow simply as an economic union, with no measures to unify in other ways—while it may not be destined for failure, it will certainly never be destined for greatness.  And that’s good.  As I’ve mentioned before, the greatness of Europe is not in its unification, but rather, in the individual awesomeness of every distinct country, language, culture, and history.  THAT is Europe.  Not some arbitrary and largely fake collection of countries who claim they are unified but in fact are anything but.

When I go to Europe, I’m not going to Europe: I’m going to France.  I’m going to Germany.  I’m going to Norway.  I’m going to Spain.  I’m going to Italy.  That’s the way it’s always been, and in all great likelihood, the way it’s always going to remain.

Why a National Minimum Wage is Stupid

by Dr. Monroe Mann, PhD, Esq, MBA, LLM, ME, EMT

Quick and dirty economics lesson.  Ready?

FIRST, A MINIMUM WAGE IN GENERAL:
a) The government cannot force private companies to hire employees.
b) A private company will not hire employees if it does not have the money.
c) The higher the minimum wage, the less employees a company will hire.
[Are you with me?  This is simple logic.]
d) The vast majority of companies in the USA are small businesses with less than 50 employees and NOT huge multinationals like McDonald’s.
e) The vast majority of these companies do not have hugely overpaid executives, so any minimum wage hikes necessarily will result in the letting go of current employees and the reduction in future hires.

If anyone would like to dispute this with economic logic, I’m all ears.

SECOND, A NATIONAL MINIMUM WAGE:
a) Different states have different economics, i.e. it’s more expensive to live in metropolitan New York City than in rural Idaho.
b) Therefore, to have a $15 national minimum wage is absurd, because it means those living in Idaho will essentially be receiving more dollar purchasing power per hour than those in Manhattan.
c) Therefore, a national minimum wage, contrary to creating income equality, effectively serves to further it.
d) Those people who use a national minimum wage in other countries as an example often use small countries with tiny populations and tiny economies as compared with the USA.  However, a national minimum wage ANYWHERE is foolish, for precisely the reasons I stated in (b).
e) The solution is to allow states to continue creating their own minimum wages, so that there is competition between the states to draw talent.

Again, if anyone would like to dispute this with economic logic, I’m all ears.

Thanks for reading.  I’m going to go to bed now.